Weekly Market Report 23rd-27th January 2012
Futures Markets:
Arabica : During the week the market was back and forth between 217 c/lb and 225 c/lb. After the announcement of low interest rates until 2014, coffee was one of the few commodities to underperform whereas cocoa, oil and gold rose. Funds and specs selling were mainly trading.
Robusta :It was a quiet market with low trades volume during the week, due to the Chinese New Year Festivities. The market gravitated lower by the end of the week due to some spec and industry selling.
Currency: US Dollar finished the week under pressure against it main currency partners, losing ground against the Euro and Sterling after Fed announced record low interest rates would continue for the next few years.
Futures and Currency close levels:
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Monday
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Tuesday
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Wednesday
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Thursday
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Friday
|
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NY Mar-12 c/lb
|
219.45
|
220.40
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217.20
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219.70
|
217.35
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|
Lon Mar-12 $/t
|
1889
|
1888
|
1889
|
1872
|
1865
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£/$
|
1.5549
|
1.5561
|
1.5431
|
1.5598
|
1.5677
|
Physical Markets:
Brazil : Weather: It is still raining in Minas Gerais with warmer temperatures. Exports in January 2012 are 1,259,487 bags according to Cecafe. The Brazilian coffee industry association, internal coffee consumption during 2010/11 was up 3.1% at 19.7 million bags. It is the second largest coffee consumer in the world.
Colombia: Total Exports registrations for January 2012 are at 408,000 bags. Little volume is offered as the volume of production is lower and exchange rate falling. Weather, rains continue showering in the coffee regions which should help farmers for the mid crop.
Honduras: Weather condition continues to be perfect and coffee flow remains very strong.
Guatemala : Crops forecasts continue to be negative because of bad weather conditions during ripening and processing period.The production of higher grown coffees is much lower than expected in earlier rating in 2011.
Kenya : During the auction, higher qualities were on offer causing price to increase. Participants were more active and highly competitive, despite of slow activity in US and Europe for nearby business. Next auction will have more bags on offer.
Tanzania : Priceswere generally higher during the last auction on higher demand. There is also more interest in Northern coffee.
Uganda : Final export figures for 2011 show 3.14 million with 2.46 million Robusta and 0.68 million Arabica, which represent an increase of 2% compared to last year. Better availability due to dry and sound weather conditions however internally price remains firms.
Ethiopia : ECX auction doesn’t follow the NY Market trend. Djimmah and Limu are in good volume to the market.
India : Crop forecast for this season is around 295.00 metric tonnes about 100.00 metric tonnes Arabica and 195.000 metric tonnes Robusta, which is 10 to 15 % down from last year’s crop.
Vietnam : Quiet week due to Holidays, TET celebrations.
Papa New Guinea: Internal coffee flow is very small and no activities reported for the new crop.
Other : Bloomberg reported that Sales of coffee by US retailers climbed 19 % to $4.52 billion in 2011, as demand increases for ground beans and single cup packets.