Weekly Market Report 19 -23 July
THOMPSON HOUSE Ÿ 42-44 DOLBEN STREET Ÿ LONDON SE1 0UQ Ÿ ENGLAND
Tel: +44 (0)20 7202 2620 Ÿ Fax: +44 (0)20 7593 1366 Ÿ E-mail: trade@drwakefield.com Ÿ Website:www.drwakefield.com
COFFEE MARKET NEWS 19th – 23rd July 2010
Futures Markets:
Commodities : ICE raw sugar futures rose slightly to touch a four-month peak last week, prices rose as a long line of vessels at built up at Brazilian ports; while Arabica coffee gained ground, aided by a softer dollar.
Arabica :. coffee futures fell mid week as speculators and funds liquidated long positions. Technical traders said the charts had turned bearish. Origin selling and speculative selling added pressure as prices broke the key support level of 160.00 cents basis the September contract. The drop in the market was partially influenced by a stronger US Dollar. The currency recovered briefly after posting a new recent low against the Euro.
Robusta : market closed lower following the New York market. Fund selling was noted. In the physical market, business was slow in Vietnam and Indonesia as local’s dealers were expecting higher prices. Lack of fresh beans continues to be a concern among exporters. the Robusta market fell following the New York action.
Currency : The Euro rose after a survey showed that German business sentiment posted a record jump in July, hitting its highest level in 3 years, and corporate results lifted stocks ahead of eagerly awaited European bank stress test results.
Futures and Currency close levels:
|
|
Monday
|
Tuesday
|
Wednesday
|
Thursday
|
Friday
|
|
NY Sep-10 c/lb
|
163.80(-3.25)
|
158.55
|
157.30
|
162.30
|
166.00
|
|
Lon Sep-10 $/t
|
1730 (-34)
|
1684
|
1672
|
1691
|
1730
|
|
£/$
|
1.5221
|
1.5285
|
1.5189
|
1.5255
|
1.5444
|
Physical Markets:
Brazil : Forecasters predict good weather in Brazil for the current crop and do not see any cold threats nearby.
Colombia : reduced amounts available at origin. Rainfall continues. Production in the first 6 months of the year shrank to 4.04 million bags from 4.24 million bags a year earlier
Guatemala : we understand weather conditions very favourable – our 2010 crop – sold out.
Tanzania : Exports will resume after the new crop becomes available in September.
Kenya : Auctions stuill on traditional summer break.
Rwanda : New season’s coffee will be shipped in September / October.
Uganda : Coffee exports from Uganda reached 2.02 million bags in the first nine months of the 2009/10 coffee year, down 13.3% in volume compared with a year ago. Robusta coffee exports fell 21% to 1.46 million bags from 1.85 million bags in the same period in the 2008/09 year, due to volatile weather and coffee wilt disease, according to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority. UCDA has also lowered its estimate for the 2009/10 coffee season from 3.1 million bags to about 2.8 million as the impact of last year's drought has been deeper than expected. In addition, UCDA reports that the area under coffee in central Uganda is gradually being reduced due to urbanization.
Zimbabwe : coffee production has hit a record low since Independence following the chaotic land reform exercise that reduced coffee growing estates from 120 to 4.
India : According to the Coffee Board of India, the area under coffee is estimated to be 380,000 hectares in the current crop season, 10% higher in the last three years. Almost 70% of all output comes from Karnataka, followed by Kerala.
USA : Starbucks Corp., the world's largest coffee chain, said that its third-quarter profit rose 37% as more customers visited its stores and spent more when they did.
From London on a warm but over cast Summer morning.
Alok Vohora